If you read about climate change, you've probably come across the hopeful term "energy transition." Generally, it refers to a national or global shift from a reliance on fossil fuel sources of energy to renewable forms of energy. For the purposes of addressing climate change, this means that over time a smaller amount of fossil fuels is burned while a greater amount of renewables are employed. Eventually, renewables dominate and fossils fuels are a minor input. That is the essence of any transition, the movement from one state to another.
Mainstream media in the U.S. uses the "energy transition" term prodigiously as they report on the growth of renewable energy, which has been remarkable. Publications by corporations and nonprofits toss the term about like a frisbee on a college lawn. It's tripping from the mouths of scientists, activists, politicians, PR hacks and lobbyists. From David Wallace-Wells, the high priest of climate change punditry at The New York Times, and from the oil company Shell which, by the way, is burnishing its green image by helping to fund climate start-up companies at Greentown Labs, just down the street from my home in Somerville, Mass. Google it for yourself: energy transition. You'll find lots of cool logos, illustrations, dioramas and videos, too.
Here we go, the energy transition!
A key question, frequently invoked, seems to be if the energy transition is moving fast enough to restrain the rise in global temperatures. The transition itself is presented as an ongoing event, a fact -- even though it doesn't exist. It might, some day. But it doesn't, not now and not soon. Let me repeat the headline: There Is No Energy Transition. World greenhouse emissions soared in 2023, making it the hottest year on record. Optimistic scenarios see world greenhouse emissions increasing throughout the decade and then plateauing from 2030 to 2050 (see previous post on this site). Yes, carbon emissions may dip a bit in developed countries like the U.S. (although the data often fails to count massive methane leakage from pipes and ports), but those effects are likely to be swamped by increases from countries, such as India, that are using fossil fuels to pull themselves out of poverty.
But why, you might ask, does all this picky-picky accounting matter? We're going green and the rest will fall into place, right?
No, it won't. Maybe it can be made to "fall into place," but that won't happen if everyone is engaged in a mass delusion that we're on some wonderful, green transition road. The accounting matters because it's irresponsible, as well as a pathetic lie, to assert that something is happening when it's not. A lots at stake here, after all. Millions of lives, modern civilization, that kind of thing.
And if that's too general, let's put it this way: your adorable children or grandchildren may die horrible deaths from the effects of climate change.
All right, back to basics. A transition has two moving parts, the increase and the decrease. Therefore, a transition doesn't occur by only adding to one part. You’re not transitioning away from a golf addiction by continuing to golf 18 holes per day but adding a half-hour of yoga or mindful listening to your spouse. You’re not transitioning away from junk food by keeping your diet the same but scarfing down celery sticks. You’re not transitioning away from smoking by inhaling your usual three packs but also doing 40 or 400 or 4,000 jumping jacks. And, drumroll, you’re not transitioning away from fossil fuels by keeping carbon emissions the same (or higher) while building up an impressive, parallel renewable energy sector.
Renewable energy does not dilute the effects of greenhouse gases. It's a necessary component of the energy transition -- just as eating healthy food may lead someone to cut down on junk food, just as exercise might be a key step in preparing to quit cigarettes -- but by itself renewable energy does nothing, nothing, nothing to address climate change.
But why, you might ask, does all this picky-picky accounting matter? We're going green and the rest will fall into place, right?
No, it won't. Maybe it can be made to "fall into place," but that won't happen if everyone is engaged in a mass delusion that we're on some wonderful, green transition road. The accounting matters because it's irresponsible, as well as a pathetic lie, to assert that something is happening when it's not. A lots at stake here, after all. Millions of lives, modern civilization, that kind of thing.
And if that's too general, let's put it this way: your adorable children or grandchildren may die horrible deaths from the effects of climate change.
All right, back to basics. A transition has two moving parts, the increase and the decrease. Therefore, a transition doesn't occur by only adding to one part. You’re not transitioning away from a golf addiction by continuing to golf 18 holes per day but adding a half-hour of yoga or mindful listening to your spouse. You’re not transitioning away from junk food by keeping your diet the same but scarfing down celery sticks. You’re not transitioning away from smoking by inhaling your usual three packs but also doing 40 or 400 or 4,000 jumping jacks. And, drumroll, you’re not transitioning away from fossil fuels by keeping carbon emissions the same (or higher) while building up an impressive, parallel renewable energy sector.
Renewable energy does not dilute the effects of greenhouse gases. It's a necessary component of the energy transition -- just as eating healthy food may lead someone to cut down on junk food, just as exercise might be a key step in preparing to quit cigarettes -- but by itself renewable energy does nothing, nothing, nothing to address climate change.
In all of the above examples, the pie is growing. There are more hours in a day for activities. There's more food you can ingest. There's...jumping jacks. As the population grows and energy use per person grows, there's greater demand for energy products. And that's where all the new renewable energy is going, to new demand. Simple as that. Now, don’t be fooled by the percentage argument. With dangerous activities, such as taking heroin or burning fossil fuels, it doesn’t matter if the "use percentage" of that activity decreases as the pie increases. The gross amount, not the percentage amount, is all that matters. Again, if someone is pounding your head with a hammer, it really doesn’t matter if that perpetrator starts giving you kisses, too.
There is, alas, no energy transition. There will be one, however, when the world starts to cut back, and cut back drastically, on the use of fossil fuels. Accomplishing that will be an epic struggle.
Happy 2024!
There is, alas, no energy transition. There will be one, however, when the world starts to cut back, and cut back drastically, on the use of fossil fuels. Accomplishing that will be an epic struggle.
Happy 2024!
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